Cash games

I've fitted in a 6 week European trip since my last post which means I am not posting too much. Obviously now I am back working the computers I am playing less poker but i AM still playing and very focused on improving my cash game.

I now feel very confident I can go into any casino and play low stakes NL holdem and consistently book a win. When I play for a long session I find it gets very swingy - I go up a bit, down a bit, up a bit etc. and it just depends when I leave if I am taking or donating money.

So why is this?

Foe a while I would start strong and win a bit and then over time lose it and a bit more back. Then leave (hit a stop-loss) - I assumed this was because other players were figuring out my game and then outplaying me.

Then I started staying longer and noticed it was a roller coaster. Normally I would win a bit, then lose a bit, then win a bit, then lose a bit etc. Often I could book a decent win on the second time around the roller coaster. Strangely this was very consistent. and I was playing sessions between 20 and 30 hours so had a fair few hands to build my theory on. I also considered if general tiredness was a factor but eventually decided this was a minor factor as I often went on winning streaks at the end of my session.

When I am winning I am playing reasonably tag, playing more hands and some draws in late position, making some bluffs from late position or playing back as LAG players but often hitting my cards to win at the river. For example maybe I play QJ suited in late position and hit the J or draw on the flop which is pretty weak, but through semi-bluffing would get there on the river or win with the bet on the flop or turn. Mostly I would be wanting to price my opponent out on the turn from chasing his own draw and therefore looking very strong. Sometimes I just get good cards pre-flop and hold up.

But on the losing streak I get crap cards all the time, when I do see half a hand (pairs, high cards) I inevitably play and lose - the other guy just seems to his everything. I get long spells with J2, 93, 72, 32, 52 etc - basically just junk. Maybe I occasionally play K-rag suited to hit a flush draw but mostly miss. So for the most part I am folding, chasing a couple of hands in position and missing.

Sometimes in position I am not even caring what my cards are - just trying to play against theTAG players and outplay them when they miss, or out-bet the loose players Unfortunately on the losing streaksmy opponents never seem to miss. I have tried changing seats, new setups, scrambling the cards, even changing tables - a cold streak just seems to continue until it is ready to come to an end.

Then it turns again and I start winning. Throughout this I notice several players leave when they win a rack - this goes against the advice to keep playing when you are winning and have the measure of the other players. But it seems at low limit this is indeed the way to win money. Win a rack and get up. Go to another table and try again (maybe a different game). Of course over time this will give you a bad reputation at the table if you effectively are hitting and running but you will win money.

It also brings back the early quote I read - good players win more from their winning hands and lose less with their losing hands. Maybe it should be said they win more from their winning streaks and less from their losing streaks.  Watching Daniel N. lose consistently on High Stakes Poker when getting it in with the best hand time and time again makes me think this swinging/variance is consistent even at the highest levels.

So for now the plan is - win a rack and move on......