Making a profit again

So since the day after Christmas I finally cracked my downswing and returned to winning ways with a modest profit.  Notable small victories:

12/26 - came 2nd in a 200 person $11 tourney ==> $330 

12/27 - came 5th in a 90 man $26 SnG ==>$144

12/29 - came 1st in a 90 man $11 SnG ==> $230

12/29 - came 1st in a 90 man $3 SnG ==> $72

I am hoping this will enable me to finish December in profit and get back to my $100 per day profit target in january.

Some of the things I have changed to get past the downswing:

- fold KQ in early position and play real cautious with it in ANY position (similar to how I play AJ)

- focus on bullying small and medium stacks around the bubble

- slow down on final table

- build chips early by positional play

I've also been more relaxed over the Christmas period and with all the travels, shopping and partying completed I have been able to slow down and focus a bit better.  This may or may not have helped my poker :-)

Pokerstars blogger freeroll

My great luck continues and I continue to smile. I was playing the blogger freeroll (the prizes are great so why not). This was a NL satellite with top 72 players qualifying out of 538 runners and I was going nicely having some banter with the table then hit the following 2 hands:

QQ v 87 - the flop was J87 and he checked, so I led out with my QQ and he called. Turn was a 7 and he checked.  I checked a little scared of the paired board and the river was a 5. He put in a small bet and did not have many chips left so I raised to put him all in. He called and showed the FH  and there went half my stack leaving me with 22oo chips or so.

AQ v 88 - I was SB and he was BB. Preflop I just called because I wanted action and he raised - things were looking good. The flop was 8AQ. Hows that for a setup. I bet and he raised, so I called and we played a bit of cat and mouse. I figured he had A-rag or maybe even A-8. I had a good banter going in the chat box and everything was looking rosy with all the chips going in the middle. His set won the day!!

I saved the history for this hand:

PokerStars Game #23034721655: Tournament #124189661, Freeroll  Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (25/50) - 2008/12/18 14:39:14 ET

Table '124189661 35' 9-max Seat #9 is the button

Seat 2: ace-redman (2076 in chips) 

Seat 3: Nis Puk (4326 in chips) 

Seat 4: DrewFours (3294 in chips) 

Seat 5: bigpoppaboat (2439 in chips) 

Seat 6: MrAckley (3650 in chips) is sitting out

Seat 7: ImRafa20 (2465 in chips) 

Seat 8: Priitk (1261 in chips) 

Seat 9: SiresNme (4574 in chips) 

ace-redman: posts small blind 25

Nis Puk: posts big blind 50

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to ace-redman [Ad Qs]

DrewFours: folds 

bigpoppaboat: folds 

MrAckley: folds 

ImRafa20: folds 

Priitk: folds 

SiresNme: folds 

ace-redman: calls 25

Nis Puk: raises 200 to 250

ace-redman: raises 200 to 450

Nis Puk: calls 200

*** FLOP *** [8h Qd Ac]

GRobman is connected 

ace-redman: bets 350

Nis Puk: raises 350 to 700

ace-redman: calls 350

*** TURN *** [8h Qd Ac] [2d]

ace-redman: checks 

Nis Puk: bets 450

ace-redman said, "gl all"

ace-redman: raises 476 to 926 and is all-in

Nis Puk: calls 476

*** RIVER *** [8h Qd Ac 2d] [Kh]

*** SHOW DOWN ***

ace-redman: shows [Ad Qs] (two pair, Aces and Queens)

Nis Puk: shows [8d 8c] (three of a kind, Eights)

Nis Puk collected 4152 from pot

Nis Puk said, "gg"

*** SUMMARY ***

Total pot 4152 | Rake 0 

Board [8h Qd Ac 2d Kh]

Seat 2: ace-redman (small blind) showed [Ad Qs] and lost with two pair, Aces and Queens

Seat 3: Nis Puk (big blind) showed [8d 8c] and won (4152) with three of a kind, Eights

Seat 4: DrewFours folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 5: bigpoppaboat folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 6: MrAckley folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 7: ImRafa20 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 8: Priitk folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 9: SiresNme (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

On a positive note I had another session yesterday where I lost 4 tournaments (I cannot win a tournament right now), but won all the buy-ins back and a little more in a cash game. So maybe I should just play cash games right now!!!!

That would be smart, but I am not smart. I am persistant - this tournament luck has to change at some  point!!

Pokerstars bloggers event

I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker!

This PokerStars tournament is a No Limit Texas Hold’em event exclusive to Bloggers.

Registration code: 178421

The conspiracy theory - online poker

I am in the middle of a downswing which I am hoping will end soon but it leads to inevitable questions from my friends and family about the possibility of online poker being rigged. I am very optimistic that this is NOT the case but it did lead me to think about the possibilities and how it would work:

1. DBA/Programmer cheats

Of course I am very familiar with computers and running databases because this is what I have done for the last 14 years. The recent Ultimate Bet/Absolute Poker scandals prove it is easy for programmers to hide code or hooks into the system that someone could abuse (for example to see hole cards of the other players on the same table),  but with competent code reviews and ongoing software upgrades by other programmers these hooks would always eventually be found out and exposed.  A more likely cheat is the DBA who has access to every game, every hand history and every player record stored in the database. They could use this information to improve their own game or share it with other players and interested parties - this would be much harder to detect but is not so different from the current occurrence of players using training sites to see the full hand histories of other winning or expert  players.  Even though the DBA can access this information it may not provide immediate benefit.

2. Pokerpro type tables.

The new electronic tables also could store all hands played so it could be possible for someone (a DBA) to run through the full hand history of the person who won a tournament playing on these machines to determine when they bluff, how much they bet for certain starting hands etc, to either improve their own game or to fully understand how another player plays - the main difference between this and the training sites is the player may not even be involved in this information being shared.  For example Mike McDonald (aka TIMEX) won the Pokerpro tournament in the 2008 Aussie millions event - who owns the hand history stored in the PokerPro machine?

3. Player collusion

We all know this exists expecially in mid-stakes cash games and single table SitNGos. The most likely scenario is 2 players who are friends  sharing information over instant messaging software regarding their hands while they play on the same table.  This would be very hard to detect if it is done sporadically but fairly easy to detect if it is done regularly. I suspect the online poker sites are working hard to identify IP addresses that regularly play on the same tables together and tracking any money transfers/chat logs etc. between players with those IP addresses.  The other form of player collusion is in large MTT tournaments where player 1 may play the easy part of the tournament and hand over to the more experienced player2 for the end game, OR one player will play the same MTT with several accounts aka multi-accounting. Something similar to this appears to have happened in a large Pokerstars tournament recently but Pokerstars had a system in place to detect this and disqualified the eventual winner. I think the  "player collusion" form of cheating will always happen to some extent but the online sites are working to stamp this out.

4. The online sites player retention scam

This is where things could get interesting. I do not think the big sites would dare to do this but because I am a programmer I know it could be done. The worst form of cheating would be an algorithym to encourage players to win a little and then lose a little, win a little more, then lose a little more eventually losing their bankroll so they have to reload. This would maximize the amount of play each player would make and therefore increase the online sites rake. How would you disguise this - basically it would just look like a run of bad luck where players appear to have a number of bad beats. Who would you target - probably the mid-range players who are the bread and butter of the site. The higher end players and the  pros know the percentages and would quickly discuss skewed statistics amongst themselves and to avoid certain sites. But the mid-range players would just keep depositing a little more money and assume their lack of skill and "bad luck" caused them to have a bad run - after all they were winning the month before!! 

Number 4 is the type of conspiracy which can only be prevented by competent regulation by an authority that can punish any offenders. It is possible self-regulation (which exists now via the importance of reputation) would also prevent the online sites from doing this. But as much as I am very optimistic this is not happening, it is impossible to know for sure.  And I am in the middle of a downswing....and several people have said to me "it must be rigged".....

Food for thought!!

Still trying to figure it all out

My downswing is ongoing. the last 3 months have gone as follows:

September - win $2212

October - win $58

November - lose  $477

Early in December I decided to take a week or so off from playing online  poker hoping this would refresh me and get me back to winning ways. Unfortunately it has made little difference as evidenced by my December month to date results:

SUMMARY - December 2008

         FTilt  PStars   Live  Total   Profit

                                          0

12/01   - 24    - 11      0    - 35    - 35

12/02 no poker played

12/03 no poker played

12/04 no poker played

12/05 no poker played

12/06 no poker played

12/07 no poker played

12/08 no poker played

12/09     33       0      0      33    -  2

12/10   - 22       0      0    - 22    - 24

12/11      0       0      0       0    - 24

12/12   - 18       0      0    - 18    - 42

12/13      0      12      0      12    - 30

12/14      0       0      0       0    - 30

12/15   - 31       0      0    - 31    - 61

Not too good. After my break I started playing again and had ONE day of positive results at Full Tilt, then continued losing money. The strange thing is I have been playing cash games on Full Tilt and winning.  For example I played on 4 tables low-stakes NL on 12/15 and ended up $71 in profit for about 2 hours work. But in the tournaments and SitNGos I continue to lose money.

Possibly the simplest reason is the lack of a winning mentality (or going on tilt). Maybe my continuing playing tournaments where I go deep and then losing around the bubble is causing me to make bad decisions. Or maybe my recent reading up on cash game play has somehow affected how I am playing tournaments.

I am hoping to figure this out and get back to positive ways. 

November summary

As mentioned in my last post, November started ok and then went downhill. The full results are shown below:

SUMMARY - November 2008

                                                            

         FTilt  PStars   Live  Total   Profit

                                          0

11/01     67    - 19      0      48      48

11/02      0       0      0       0      48

11/03    100    -  2      0      98     146

11/04   -158    - 12      0    -170    - 24 

11/05    229       0   - 60     169     145

11/06   -245       0      0    -245    -100

11/07   - 35    -  3      0    - 38    -138

11/08   - 23       0      0    - 23    -161

11/09   - 85       0      0    - 85    -246

11/10   - 33       0      0    - 33    -279

11/11      0       0      0       0    -279

11/12     16       0      0      16    -263

11/13    140       0      0     140    -123

11/14    138      15      0     153      30

11/15   - 77       0      0    - 77    - 47

11/16   -107    - 12      0    -119    -166

11/17   - 10    - 28      0    - 38    -204

11/18      0       0      0       0    -204

11/19   - 42       0      0    - 42    -246

11/20      0       0      0       0    -246

11/21   - 26       0      0    - 26    -272

11/22   - 68      29      0    - 39    -311

11/23     58    -  0      0      58    -253

11/24   - 95    - 57      0    -152    -405

11/25   - 22       0      0    - 22    -427

11/26   - 38       0      0    - 38    -461

11/27      0       0      0       0    -461

11/28      0       0      0       0    -461

11/29      1    -  0      0       1    -460

11/30      0    - 17      0    - 17    -477

The final loss for the month was $477. When will this downswing end? The obvious question is what am I doing about it. I am reviewing my hand histories, writing down how I am playing certain hands, moving to different buyins and different types of games, re-reading certain books and re-watching certain training site videos that seemed to help me before. 

So far I have not cracked the nut. I am going deep quite often and then losing near to or on the bubble. For example, some of my recent beats:

AQ v A8 (he hit the 8)

set v pair (he back-doored a straight)

AK v AA

AQ v AA

KK v JJ (he hit the J)

QQ v 33 (he hit the 3)

Jh9h v As7s (me short stacked on the bubble, money goes in post flop on flop of 2d, Js, 7c - he calls with pair of 7s and gets a backdoor flush 5s, Ks)

I decided to take some days off from playing poker - maybe a break will get me back to winning ways in December.

Back home

So Im back in California after staying an extra 10 days in Australia for some additional R&R.  Its kind of an inside joke as a lot of my friends are bemused by my time off "work" playing poker and probably think my whole life is R&R.

What happened in Australia after my great little 6 final tables in a row?  A massive downswing.  Once again the gods (or Full tilt shuffler) seemed to go against me. Every time I went all-in I seemed to hit AK V AA, or QQ v KK, or AK v AQ with a miracle Q appearing, or KK v JJ with a miracle J appearing. My step-dad was watching and was amazed how unlucky I seemed to be - he is now convinced Full Tilt is rigged. Of course I do not believe that - I am just on another downswing that will eventually end.

Anyhow I am back home to the wife and dogs and with no sign of the downswing ending in Australia I am hoping it will end over here. I have been reading some additional poker books - currently I am reading "Online Ace" by Scott Fischman.