The conspiracy theory - online poker

I am in the middle of a downswing which I am hoping will end soon but it leads to inevitable questions from my friends and family about the possibility of online poker being rigged. I am very optimistic that this is NOT the case but it did lead me to think about the possibilities and how it would work:

1. DBA/Programmer cheats

Of course I am very familiar with computers and running databases because this is what I have done for the last 14 years. The recent Ultimate Bet/Absolute Poker scandals prove it is easy for programmers to hide code or hooks into the system that someone could abuse (for example to see hole cards of the other players on the same table),  but with competent code reviews and ongoing software upgrades by other programmers these hooks would always eventually be found out and exposed.  A more likely cheat is the DBA who has access to every game, every hand history and every player record stored in the database. They could use this information to improve their own game or share it with other players and interested parties - this would be much harder to detect but is not so different from the current occurrence of players using training sites to see the full hand histories of other winning or expert  players.  Even though the DBA can access this information it may not provide immediate benefit.

2. Pokerpro type tables.

The new electronic tables also could store all hands played so it could be possible for someone (a DBA) to run through the full hand history of the person who won a tournament playing on these machines to determine when they bluff, how much they bet for certain starting hands etc, to either improve their own game or to fully understand how another player plays - the main difference between this and the training sites is the player may not even be involved in this information being shared.  For example Mike McDonald (aka TIMEX) won the Pokerpro tournament in the 2008 Aussie millions event - who owns the hand history stored in the PokerPro machine?

3. Player collusion

We all know this exists expecially in mid-stakes cash games and single table SitNGos. The most likely scenario is 2 players who are friends  sharing information over instant messaging software regarding their hands while they play on the same table.  This would be very hard to detect if it is done sporadically but fairly easy to detect if it is done regularly. I suspect the online poker sites are working hard to identify IP addresses that regularly play on the same tables together and tracking any money transfers/chat logs etc. between players with those IP addresses.  The other form of player collusion is in large MTT tournaments where player 1 may play the easy part of the tournament and hand over to the more experienced player2 for the end game, OR one player will play the same MTT with several accounts aka multi-accounting. Something similar to this appears to have happened in a large Pokerstars tournament recently but Pokerstars had a system in place to detect this and disqualified the eventual winner. I think the  "player collusion" form of cheating will always happen to some extent but the online sites are working to stamp this out.

4. The online sites player retention scam

This is where things could get interesting. I do not think the big sites would dare to do this but because I am a programmer I know it could be done. The worst form of cheating would be an algorithym to encourage players to win a little and then lose a little, win a little more, then lose a little more eventually losing their bankroll so they have to reload. This would maximize the amount of play each player would make and therefore increase the online sites rake. How would you disguise this - basically it would just look like a run of bad luck where players appear to have a number of bad beats. Who would you target - probably the mid-range players who are the bread and butter of the site. The higher end players and the  pros know the percentages and would quickly discuss skewed statistics amongst themselves and to avoid certain sites. But the mid-range players would just keep depositing a little more money and assume their lack of skill and "bad luck" caused them to have a bad run - after all they were winning the month before!! 

Number 4 is the type of conspiracy which can only be prevented by competent regulation by an authority that can punish any offenders. It is possible self-regulation (which exists now via the importance of reputation) would also prevent the online sites from doing this. But as much as I am very optimistic this is not happening, it is impossible to know for sure.  And I am in the middle of a downswing....and several people have said to me "it must be rigged".....

Food for thought!!