Full Tilt progress (sit n gos)

While I have the ring game/VPP challenge on Pokerstars to keep me motivated I have a different challenge on Full Tilt.

I have been studying how the players at the top of the profit leaderboards for Sit N Gos play. I do this by selecting a player and then searching for him on Full Tilt. Now to get to the top of the profit leaderboards (hosted by either the Full Tilt website or Sharkscope or similar) you have to play most days and play many tables concurrently. This means players like "kennl" or Stinko_Mikko are easy to find and observe while they play.

I watched these and other players over the course of several days trying to figure out how they become consistently profitable.  If I can emulate how they play myself maybe I can finally grind up my online bankroll to decent levels.

So look out for me playing the 45 and  90 man sit n gos at various buyin levels.  My Full Tilt balance took another heavy hit at the last FTOPS (see my earlier post about how I lose all my money during FTOPS and/or WCOOP type events) so my balance is pretty low. I am really hoping I can avoid depositing more money but can slowly and carefully build on what I have by emulating the consistent winners.

If I works I will publish the secret formula on the blog!!!

Pokerstars May promotion

Pokerstars are running a promotion for UK players where if they earn a small number of VPPs they get rated like players from other countries who have to earn a much larger number of VPPS. Now I have not played much with VPPs but this gave me an excuse to do so so here is what I have found out:

- playing low-cost tournaments or sit n gos earn such a small number of VPPs it is simply not worth it

- playing limit 9 or 10  handed ring games is the best way to earn VPPs. If I play 6 tables concurrently at $1/$2 limit for about an hour I can earn about 80VPPs

- you earn VPPs to get rated at a "star level". Based on your rated star level. you also earn FPPs. The FPPs are what you spend on goodies or tournament entries. Everyone on Pokerstars starts as a Bronze star and Bronze star guys earn 1 FPP for every VPP they earn. So my 80 VPPS per hour will earn 80FPPs.  When I progress to Silver star, Gold Star, Platinum star and Supanova rating levels I will earn more FPPs for each VPP. This means I can buy goodies more quickly OR enter more tournaments.

- my goal for May is to earn 3000 VPPs which under this offer will elevate me to Platinum star in June and also give me 60,000 free VPPs to push me towards Supanova. you need to earn 100,000 VPPs in a calender year to become Supanova - this is one of the highest ratings and their are special tournaments for Supanova players only.

Now this is interesting for me as I dont play much limit poker and suck at cash games. Maybe by forcing myself to grind away I will get better. I have studied cash games for the last couple of months and changed how I play but I am still a losing/break-even player at best. So this may cost me some money to meet to 3000 VPPs target. But I want to see how it goes.

The Bike casino

I went to The Bicycle casino for the first time this week and played in their noon tournament and then in their evening deep-stack special. 

In the noon tournament (which cost $40) they had about 150 runners and you start with 4000 chips which with the 30 min levels and low blind structure allows quite a bit of play. I played my normal game slowly chipping up to 11,000 chips when the following hand happened. I had QQ in early position and raised 3xbb and got called by the cutoff. The flop came 2-Q-8 rainbow and I bet about half the pot. He raised me 3x my bet and I pushed all in. He called and showed AA and looked quite sad when I showed my set of queens. No need to worry though and the turn brought another ace and I was busto.

The evening tournament is part of a week-long deep stack special they are running and cost $240 so a bit more than my normal buyins. I only had 2 hands of note. The first I had J-10 in the big blind and hit top pair on the flop and 2 pair on the turn. I bet 3/4 pot both times and got called by a guy with pocket 4s. Of course the river was a 4 and I was down to 5500 chips or so. The next hand I was dealt AK in late position and raised 3x to 600. I got 4 callers and the flop was 8h-Ac-6h. Of course I was worried about the flush so I made a pot size bet with 2 callers and the turn was 2d which helped no-one. I decided one last attempt to discourage the draw so I pushed my remaining chips in but got 1 caller who showed 7h 5h for the flush and straight draws. He had 15 outs so about 30% likely to hit on the river and based on his pot odds his call was ok. The river was an 8 and I was busto. 

I thought a lot about this hand and alternate plays such as:

a)  to push all-in on the flop. With 2700 in the pot if I pushed my 5500 there would be 8200 in the pot with him having to call 5500. He would be 60% likely to his one of his outs so a 3/2 favorite.  This makes a call of 5400 to win an 8100 pot ok so he still would have called. Therefore if my math is correct an all-in push on the flop makes no difference  - I would still to go busto. 

b) to check it down after the flop but then I let him hit his draw for free (as well as the other three callers) and prob would be crippled if I called his likely bet on the river. Maybe I could have got away from the hand on the river but that's assuming one of the other four players did not try a steal on the turn. If I called a "steal"  bet on the turn then  I probably could not get away from calling a river bet

c) what if I pushed all-in preflop or at least a much larger bet. The problem here is were were only on level 3 of a deep stack and I was prepared to muck my hand if I missed the flop. But in hindsight the 7-5 hand would have folded to a large preflop raise so maybe this would be a better play. preflop the sb (100) , bb(200), villain (200), 1 limper (200). me (600), the button (600) and the big blind (600) made him call 400 chips to win 2300.  If I had raised to 1000 and the button folded then the pot would be sb(100), bb(200), 1 limper (200), me (1000) and the bg blind (1000) meaning he would have to call 800 to win 2300. If the button also folded he would have to call 800 to win 1700. Ultimately it seems I should have raised preflop to at least 1000 based on a normal raise (3x) plus 2 limpers - this is where I made a mistake and paid the ultimate price.

What about the Bike casino. I liked it inside and especially liked the $40 tournament with the large stack and lots of play. I will definitely go again for this tournament. They take 25% service fee so I will only go if there are 150+ runners otherwise the prize pool is not worth it. Re other stuff I thought the food and drinks were poor compared to Oceans11 but they did have a big menu. The chips/tables/staff were ok but dealers made more mistakes than I see at Oceans and also the floor man seem stretched. I played some 4/8 limit and some 40NL at these were fun tables with the younger crowd on the NL tables as you would expect. 

Driving to the casino was easy too although rush hour in LA sucks and I hate HATE driving in heavy stop and go traffic. Fortunately it takes about 50 mins from my house to the casino so I can leave for the noon tourney about 11am and only will have to deal with traffic if I make it really deep.  Hopefully when I win the tourney that will please me enough to offset my traffic misery but until it happens we will see.

Another win at Oceans 11

So I went to Oceans 11 last night for the evening tournament - only the second time I have played the evening tournament there and the first time I chopped it 4 ways. I arrived late and just made the buyin 3 minutes before level 1 had ended.

I played tight from the start and slowly loosened up until I was a maniac with 3 tables left. I still had a smaller than average stack but I stole the blinds and made the occasional re-steal several times between 25 and 15 players until we were really near the bubble. Then I got lucky and ran AK into A9 to double up and become the chip leader going into the final table.

Interestingly the TD wrote down the prize money for each place on a whiteboard but also wrote the "even chop" number in red alongside each spot. So a 9 way chop was shown alongside 9th place as $xxx, an 8 way chop was shown alongside 8th place as $yyy etc. This probably saved her work with people asking all the time but at the same time encouraged players to request an even chop. And the did...again and again and again.

Everything was going well but several players were requesting a chop from the get-go. Obviously I said no and we got down to 6 players still with me in the lead. A chop was being requested between every hand and everyone else agreed apart from me (I was about 2-1 ahead in chips). If they had offered me a sweetener I probably would have said ok as it was getting late but they did not - they only seemed to consider an even money chop. Anyhow I run KJs into A-10 for a huge pot against one of the middle stacks and lose and now I am back to second in chips.

Another round of whining about chopping and I caved to the peer pressure accepting the chop. Everyone was happy and got their money but I was disappointed in myself afterwards. I think I was the best player on the table and was most likely to win. The even chop amount was slightly more than 3rd place money but the little stack got the same as the big stack and that did not seem right.

Anyhow I wasted some of the winnings playng $4/$8 limit after and could not help thinking I was a wimp for caving in and should hold out next time. Although it was sweet to have another win under my belt the whole chop thing left a bitter taste.

Back grinding at tournaments

I eventually managed to get back to grinding large tournaments after a week or 2 of struggling to get motivated when I got back from Las Vegas.

On Pokerstars the best results I got were:

-  15th in a $22 tourney with 603 runners (won $109)

- 14th in a $11 rebuy with 1242 runners (won $451)

On Full Tilt the best results I got were:

- 22nd in a $11 tourney with 462 runners (win $22)

- 14th in a $3.30 tourney with 335 runners (win $9)

- 77th in a $26 tourney with 1228 runners (win $41)

- 42nd in a $11 tourney with 622 runners (win $15)

- 87th in an $11 tourney with 887 runners (win $13)

- 45th in a $3.30 rebuy with 1195 runners (win $35)

- 91st in a $26 tourney with 1898 runners (win $64)

Notice a similar theme here. I play a tourney for several hours, get really deep and then fall apart right when the payouts are tiny. All the win amounts are barely more than the buyin and make the whole thing seem pointless.

Motivation - lets see. Play 5 hours in a tourney that cost $11 and win $22 - that's $2.20 an hour for your time. I am obviously not going to make a living if I cannot get better.

I know from last year if I keep grinding away and reading/studying everything I can on how to play the closing stages of a tourney I will get a couple of big cashes and my bankroll will get healthy. Right now though I am just repeating the same old thing - enter a tourney,go deep get in the lower money and crash and burn.

Also I am watching the big online pros still, trying to see how they close out a tournament to get to the final table. But I get frustrated sometimes when I see how easy they make it look. Its never that easy for me!!

I'm gonna figure this all out.....eventually

Cash games update - no consistency

So I am still trying to consistently beat cash games. I have tried all sorts of strategies from playing the smallest games to playing several tables at once. I played in live games in Vegas and thought I did ok but was not a consistent winner.

When I multi-table online with 2 tables I seem to lose on one and win a similar amount on the other.  If I go to 4 tables I win on 2 and lose on 2. Doesn't that seem rigged.

So I am reading up online trying to figure out how to beat these games. I have several conflicting thoughts:

a) I can play cheap games (5c/10c) to learn but is anything in these games comparable to $3/$6 or higher. Maybe I will gain experience but maybe that experience will de-moralize me and not be relevant to games where a decent amount of money is at risk.

b) should I play limit or no limit.

c) should I play full ring game (9 or 10 handed) or 6 handed - it seems 6 handed has more action so maybe I should avoid this until I am consistently winning.

These are tough choices. I played some $1/$2 NL and had some decent winning sessions (300+) but then one or 2 losing sessions (500+) and that hurt! I step down to 5c/10c and play for what seems like ages and come out a few dollars up or down - it seems like a waste of time. Even though I am gaining experience I just cannot decide if it is "good experience" or "bad experience".

I have been reading online advice on the forums and general strategy articles. Also I ordered Lee Jones "Winning low limit poker" book from the library - this was recommended to me by a lady playing at the Bellagio when I was in Vegas so I figured it cannot hurt me to read it.

I'll see if it helps....

Why so quiet around here

So I got back from Las Vegas and went on a bit of a life-tilt. First of all I decided I needed a week or so without too much poker so I could adjust to living normal hours again and to the lack of bright lights, alcohol, casino noises and general degenerative behaviour that is Las Vegas. I love the place, but spending 16 days there playing non-stop poker at all hours of the day certainly skews ones outlook on life.

I spent a week relaxing at home, getting my sleeping patterns back, spending time with the wife and dogs and generally re-establishing some normality. Although I tried to go online for a few sessions I was generally not motivated by online poker. I had played so much live poker that sitting in front of the PC for hours just seemed boring. I therefore was impatient and generally donked off my chips after an hour or two of each session. Strangely enough this did not upset me.

Another side effect of the Vegas trip was my chronic back-pain was gone. I guess I walked a lot in Vegas and slept in many different hotel beds. Maybe the poker chairs are more comfortable than my office setup. Something obviously had helped my back-pain and I played one of my most enjoyable games of soccer in the last couple of years - not because of how well the team played but just because I had full movement on the ball without the pain I have suffered for years.

Anyhow week 2 after I got back I was sleeping reasonable hours and still not very motivated to play online. The few sessions I did have seemed to all go bad.

Week 3 was much the same. I started going back to kicking off 4 or 5 tournaments at the start of the day and trying to grind but my enthusiasm was just not there. When I got knocked out I did not start any more tournies - just watched tv and read some books. I realised I was running bad and started re-reading some of my poker books and watching poker videos at some training sites but I could not even be motivated to finish these activities. Also my back pains came back and I resumed playing soccer at 60% movement and killer-pain (relieved on the day by excessive Advil and then post-game suffering for a few days!!).

So now I am in week 4. I have tried varying the games I am playing mixing in some heads-up, some Omaha H/L and some small SnGs. Just to get some motivation. Yesterday evening I kicked off 3 decent sized tournies and bubbled 2 of them and cashed in the 3rd. This is the best result I have had in weeks and makes me feel like maybe I am on the way back. I also cashed in a couple of small one table SnGs so that has cheered me up a little.

Vegas is such a dilemma for me. I think I was a net winner at cash games, a slight loser at tournaments although I cashed in 3 out of 13 winning two of them (one chop). I could spend hours grinding the poker tables to win a few hundred dollars and then minutes playing craps and lose that and much more. I struggled on Friday and Saturday nights walking through the casino where everyone was chugging free drinks, playing table games, having mega-fun and partying whereas I was dead sober heading for the grind in the poker room. Yes it would be profitable taking money off the drunks but they were having fun and I was working. I cannot imagine how tough if must be doing that full-time although I think if you do not stay in the casino-hotel that may help keep your sanity. If you live there and drive in specifically to go to the poker room and then drive home again maybe its like any other job. But staying in the casino hotel, walking past the fun loving people to get to the poker room, eating in the restaurants, watching the bands perform  in the lounge, the dancers all over the place, the tourists in their skimpy outfits falling around drunk, the dropouts, hustlers and hookers when walking from casino to casino (especially at night with thousands of dollars in your pocket) etc. - its very tough. 

As I write this I think anyone who reads it would say what a great life - how can you think that stuff is tough. But it is tough if you are trying to stay sober and focus on getting to a card table to win a bunch of money off people you are clearly trying to exploit. For me , my inner self was telling me Fri and Sat nights were party nights - have a beer or six and join in the fun. Play some craps, blackjack, slots, roulette and enjoy Vegas like everyone else. And as soon as I let my guard down - there went all the poker winnings.

So in conclusion, I dunno!! 

I do know that I still love Vegas. I still would love to live there for 6 months to grind the games and see how I do. But I am sure I would degenerate and become a sad human being. Fortunately my wife keeps me sane and would not allow me to go for so long in the first place. I recognize my own flaws could break me if I stayed there too long.  

Vegas daily - March 27th

I woke up at 10am and tried to extend my stay at the Luxor but they would not give me a good rate for another night (something about not playing their slots while I was there), so I instead tried to get a late checkout. Then I toyed with the idea of driving back to CA in my tired state but I talked to Ami and she convinced me to stay a few more days and win some money off the weekend tourists, So I farted around phoning hotels and finally got a comp stay at NYNY for 3 more nights (Fri,Sat,Sun) under their Friends and Family offer.

Good Job. Now to pack and move hotels. Initially NYNY put me in a really bad room with terrible views and noise but they kindly gave me a room change so now I am on the 21st floor overlooking th strip. Unpacked and had a nap to 5.30pm to make up for last night. 

Now NYNY does not have a poker room but I have heard good things about the 7pm tournament at the Sahara so I decided  play there tonight. I bought in for $70 and played a cash $1/$2NL game while I waited. I only played for about 20 minutes but left with a $90 profit so I was frerolling in the tournament. I played well and was chipping up nicely when I really aggressive player was moved to the left of me. He was raising and 3 betting preflop and we had a couple of small battles that I got the better of when this hand came up. I am on the button with QJs and he is small blind. I preflop raise to 3000 and he min-raises to 5000 so I call. The flop is 6dQcJh - nice!! I check it because he is so aggressive.  I want him to bet and he does, firing out 8000. I think for a bit and then push all in for another 15000 or so. He calls instantly and shows QQ - the Q on the flop was the case Q. Obviously I could not put him on QQ - I had thought he had AA, KK, AK or maybe 66,  KQ, AQ or even the same hand as me. Well I was wrong and did not get runner runner JJ so that was that. I was quite disappointed.

I then played limit and N cash games which seemed pretty soft - a number of tight and/or drunk players combine with aggressive players who balked at any 3bets meant I won money in each session. I started my day with $750 and ended it with $1200.

After a taxi back to the NYNY I again am hitting the sack at 5.40am - seems I just cant get away from these late nights. At least I can sleep in tomorrow without worrying about the hotel room or a long drive back to CA.

Vegas daily - March 26

Today I got going about noon starting at the Luxor poker room. The only seat available was at a $3/$6 limit game so I played that. I got off to a good start but then had a number of coolers against a lady playing insane cards from out of position. 9-4 offsuit, J-2 offsuit, 10-4 offsuit etc. - not only did she play these cards but she cracked my big hands 6 or 7 times where I was ahead until the turn and betting every street and then the river made here a hand. I lost my $100 and could not believe her luck. I decided I would be able to get it back because she was so bad so I spent another $100 just having the same bad luck. So I stopped playing and decided that table was a cooler.

I played $1/$2 NL for  short while and made a net loss of $20 before deciding to go to Ceasors Palace for their 7pm tournament. It cost $160 to enter. I was playing well and chipping up to well above average when I made a bluff 3 bet on this chap to my right. It worked so I tried it again a short while later. It worked again.  The next orbit I raised his bb again from under the gun and he pushed. He had about half my stack. I looked at my cards (pocket 8s) and decided he was just playing back at me to stop me from bullying him so I called his all-in and he showed the aces. Ouch! A while later I moved tables and was trying to chip up again when I pushed in with A-10 suited from the cutoff. Unfortunately the BB woke up wth QQ and that was that.

I then played some $1/$2 NL at Ceasors and made about $120 back of my tourney buyin when they announced they had a few seats left for the midnight tourney. So I bought a seat. This only cost $60 and had about 50 runners. The problem was I was supposed to check out of my hotel the next morning and drive back to CA and by playing this tournament I would be really tired (and probably fall asleep at the wheel).  So after and hour or so I regretted my decision to play but I was chipping up well and still pissed at my 8-8 mistake in the early tourney. Nothing much happened except we played for 5 hours until we had 8 left on the final table and all agreed to  8 way split. I felt I would win if we carried on but I was tired, aware of what was going to happen the next day and just glad to be going to sleep. The good news was a $307 payout.

I took a taxi back to the Luxor and finally got to bed about 5.45am....

Vegas daily - March 25

Today I woke at 10am and spent 2 hours messing around extending my hotel stay for a bit longer so I can continue my Vegas adventure.  My day went as follows:

- 1.30pm - register for 2pm Luxor tournament

- play $3/$6 limit game while I wait - buyin for $100 and cash out $120

- 2pm - play Luxor tournament - only 11 people registered but I win it so I get $300 payout for 1st place after paying $55 to enter.

- 4.20 pm - play $1/$2 NL for a couple of hours until I go to the MGM for their 7pm tournament - did ok = buyin for $100 and cash out for $240

- 6pm - get some lunch/dinner from the deli

- 6.45pm - register for MGM tournament

- play $1/$2 NL game for 10 mins until tournament starts - buyin for $100 and cash out for $165

- 7pm - play MGM tournament - 40 runners and a few alternates. Got down to 2 tables but made a mistake. I had 8k chips at 800/1600 and played SB/BB, then they broke the table and put me on another table immediately playing SB/BB again. Suddenly I was mega shortstacked so I pushed with J8 suited into a 3 way all-in hoping for a miracle. Both my cards were live but I did not get lucky and that was that

- played $1/$2 NL for about 90 mins and did ok - buyin for $100 and cash out for $243

- played $3/$6 limit for a couple of hours (into early morning) and did ok - buyin for $100 and cash out for $163.

- walk back to Luxor and sort our room key recoding for extending my stay

- after checking emails and the blog updates it is just shy of 4am so I will sleep for 6 hours and start again.

Overall, a good day with 1 tournament win and a few cash wins.... 

Vegas daily report

I thought I would put at least one detailed entry of how I am spending a day in Las Vegas. Each day is different but this is typical. Its Tues March 24th and it went like this:

- 10am - wake up, shower, get a taxi from Luxor where I am staying to the Venetian

- 11.30am - register for noon toruney at Venetian - play some $4/$8 limit while I wait - buyin for $100 and cash out for $112

- noon to 4pm - play tourney 98 entries, down to about 35 left where I have 11BB and move all in on button with Q-10suited hoping to steal. The BB has AK and thats that.

- walk to Mirage - get some lunch/dinner

- 6.45pm - sign up for Mirage 7pm tourney. Play some $3/6 limit while I wait. Buyin for $100 and cash out for $101

- 7pm - 8pm - play Mirage tourney - get AK 3 times and lose/not connect 3 times. You have to chip up fast in this badly structured tourney so Im in trouble - push all in preflop with AJs in late pos. Called by J8 by large stack - he hits a straight - thats that.

- walk to Bellagio

- 9pm - after waiting a while I get a spot in a $4/$8 game and do ok. Play for about 90 mins. Buyin for $100 and cashout with $210.

- walk to Excalibur

- 11.30pm - sign up for the Pokerpro electronic machnes and play a game of .5/$1 against crazy drunk people. Get to $144 and then push all in with 87 suited on a 956 rainbow flop. Called by a guy with 10-9 (top pair). Turn is a 10, river is a 9 - nice catch by him as he stacks me. Its 2am by now and even though the table is soft and crazy I decide im too tired so take my loss and 

- walk to Luxor

- 3am - by the time I arrive and check my emails its time for bed.

Vegas trip - March 2009

So I am updating the blog from Las Vegas. I took my wife Ami to Vegas for her Birthday on March 14th weekend and I stayed on here for a couple of weeks to practice my live cash game and tournament progress. So far its been a fun and very educational trip.

I started off in Monte Carlo casino on the strip where Ami and I focused on her interests which included slots, shopping, blackjack, spa and relaxation. Not a lot of poker played but I did sneak into the poker room a couple of times for short sessions and it is a nicely laid out room. There seem to be a few regulars who like to educate the tourists by taking their money but I held my own and even got a few compliments and asked if I was a local. (Maybe they were just buttering me up but it seemed sincere).

After Ami left I upped the poker ratio and tried to stay away from the Craps tables (my biggest leak - that game is such fun!). So far I have played cash games and/or tournaments at MGM, Wynn, Venetian, Luxor, Mandalay Bay and Monte Carlo. 

My stats:

- came 16th out of 207 in a Venetian deep-stack tournament for a $307 cash ($150 entry)

- came 1st out of 18 in a Luxor tournament for a $160 cash (3 way chop) ($50 entry)

- bubbled in Mandalay Bay 35 person tournament (5 paid) after losing with AQ then AK in 2 hands on the bubble v all-in short stacks. Worse they were all in on the BB with no choice so I lost to random cards!!!!

- played 7 tournaments so far, cashed in 2.  Bubbled in 1.

The cash games are harder to quantify. I have bounced all over the place posting some losses and some wins. Some terrible bad beats taking my stack (AJ v J8 on J65 rainbow board where his 8 catches the runner runner straight, AA v 10-10 were he catches a 10 etc.). As I said before I am taking this in stride.

Some of the younger Vegas locals I have met out here are mega aggressive and its interesting to watch and learn. They seem to have learnt online how to play poker and brought that game with them. They play 1-2 or 2-5 no limit. In 1-2 NL they seem to raise most pots preflop to $15 or $20 and then bet $30-$50 on the flop. The tourists often do not want to risk this much money preflop to the locals take it down. Its an interesting strategy.

I have tried to avoid these players by moving to a different table or mixing it up and playing 3-6 or 4-8 limit where a lot of older players like to play. There the older guys like to give advice on how I am playing which often is helpful and occasionally terrible. But it is worth exactly what I am paying for it and I am keen to hear from anyone I can about how they play and if they are profitable. 

A big part of my game right now is trying to pick the right table. Often you go on a casino list so you don't get a choice but you can request a tale change if needed. Other times when it is quiet several tables have an empty seat and you can select where to sit. I look for drunk players first and foremost, then unbalanced stacks and if I can I try to observe the table for a bit. Even if I sit down I am waiting an orbit or o before I get too involved just to get a feel for the players.  When I have decided who is weak and I play aggressive against them. I also tend to be very aggressive in the first couple of hands I play - the other players seem to give a lot of respect until they have seen you for a bit and often fold to flop aggression or a second barrel on the turn.

I will try to update the blog again while I am out here - its been 10 days so far so I only have a short time left before I have to go back to CA.

Oceans 11 tournament - finally cracked it

So as you know I have been frequently going to Oceans 11 casino in Oceanside on Wednesdays and playing the tournaments they put on. I have made he final table a few times but the best I have got is 5th place last year.

Well, that all changed on March 4th when I finally won the thing. To be fair we chopped it 4 ways but I am going to chalk that up as joint 1st place!!

So what now....I guess I will have to pick another tournament to try to win....!

More cash game theory

So I played a lot of cash games in February and I lost a lot of money! I read a lot of books and forum messages and websites on cash game theory. I moved down limits to the micro levels and still lost. I played in the local CA casinos and lost some more.

Eventually I turned it around and started winning. Some significant adjustments I made regarding how to play include:

- play position very strongly but only with cards that can improve and only if the pot is worth it. For example if it is folded to me on the button with only the blinds to go I will not bother with raising any marginal hands because the pot is not worth it. However if there are 2 or more people in the pot I will play marginal hands because the pot is likely to be a decent size.

- in limit poker I was chasing draws to the end calling down bets on the turn and river when the pot was pretty small - I now will only call down to the river IF the pot is large. Most of the times I still miss my draw but when I gt the miracle river card the payoff now makes up for all the times I miss.

- I have upped the aggression. There are lots of limpers and weak players wanting to keep the pot small. I now raise much more than calling and c-bet more than 50% of flops that I have raised with a large near-potsized cbet. The idea is to get rid of the raggy cards preflop and get rid of the draws on the flop. I tend to fold to an aggressive flop re-raise unless I have a made hand.

- I am doing a lot more reading of my opponents and trying to understand pokertracker and its various statistics.  I am looking for tight weak players who will limp a lot into the pot preflop and fold to a raise either preflop or when they miss the flop.

- I am only playing the marginal hands from late position and being much more picky. It seems in cash games too many players now play 1 and 2 gappers trying to get lucky from the wrong position. I am trying to play less of these hands and focus on suited or high unsuited connectors from late position only and only when there is already money in the pot.

- tilt. I am trying to understand good poker players gamble their stack when they think they are ahead and therefore must lose sometimes. So if I lose my stack nd have to rebuy, no big deal. The beats I have taken have been sometimes very tough - KK v KK and he gets  a flush, A v JJ and he gets a straight etc etc. - No big deal. I now realise the other guy got lucky and I will often win those chips back by keeping my focus on the game.

Thats about it...... 

Cash game theory

So lets try to Cliff-notes the difference in theory between tournaments and cash games:

Tournaments. Most people start tournaments by playing tight while the blinds are small and just trying to survive and slowly chip up until the latter stages. As the blinds and antes rise and become a bigger percentage of your stack you get more aggressive.  When you have less than 10BB you get very aggressive. A large part of most online tournaments is played with average stacks of 10-30BB. Most pots seem to be won with starting hands that are pairs or high cards (AK, AQ etc). When you lose in a tournament your fun is over, so most people do not want to gamble unless they have a made hand or great pot odds. 

Cash games: Cash games are often played with very large stacks (100 or more BBs) and if you lose your stack you can easily rebuy. So there is no fear of ending your fun. If you have a draw and reasonably good odds you go chase those cards.  When you hit the pot tends to be huge. Therefore starting hands in cash games are often small cards and connectors or 1-gappers (9-8, 7-6, 10-9 etc). In fact AA, AK and KK are often cracked by 2 pair, sets and straights or flushes. These large hands need to be played quickly in cash games to stop people drawing out on you.  Position is really important in cash games. You really want to be the guy to act last. And mistakes (yours or someone elses) are massively important. You can play a cash game for hours patiently chipping up and then lose your whole stack with one bad mistake.  Good players are extremely patient as they know they make most of their money on a few big pots that only come around once in a long while. Good players also practice hand reading. It is extremely important in cash games to be able to get away from a second best hand - you can only do this by putting your opponents on a range of hands and trying to determine which is the most likely one they are betting with.  This is a big skill and a key part of being a good cash player.  You also need to be able to counter other cash players from reading your hand by being deceptive - making your set of 8s look like top pair top kicker.  

So there you go. Nothing to it. Except that even when you think you have it figured out, it still does not work........

I will detail some of the strategies Ive been using in future posts. I am trying to find the right mix of patience, aggression, bluffing and skill.  While I am searching for this mix, I will bleed money out of my bankroll. I will lose, lose and lose some more. I am philosophical about this - eventually I will win, win and win some more.   I hope!

FTOPS and cash games

So February is all about playing some FTOPS events and re-visiting cash games.  The FTOPS is a twice yearly online tournament hosted by Full Tilt with large guarantees.  Each time it is on I try to win entries into a couple of the events via the satellites Full Tilt put on.  Normally I burn a huge amount of my bankroll when FTOPS is on and this month will probably be no exception.

So why do it? This is my chance to take a shot at some bigger tournaments.  Normally I play$11 and $26 tournaments so my average buy-in is $15.  Even with last months 161% ROI (which is quite an impressive number) I only win less than $4000.  To win the really big money you have to take a shot at larger tournaments and FTOPS is one time I take my shot. Some of the FTOPS tournaments pay 400 or 500 thousand dollars for first place. Can you imagine that return from one tournament.  The top players sure can.

Cash games. I flirt on and off with cash games online and rarely make much headway. I have focused my poker training on tournament and SnG play and mostly skipped the sections on cash games. But I think I need to learn to make me a better all round player.  I know you can win and lose a LOT more money in cash games so I need to figure them out for long term poker success 

Most poker newbies do not understand why cash games are so different that tournament play. They also might be surprised that cash game play is so complex.  I must admit I have never mastered the complexities yet and February is going to be dedicated to that goal.

So for February, forget the ROI (it will probably be skewed because of FTOPS anyhow) and forget the attempt to make $100 per day profit. My main goal in February is to understand the ebb and flow of cash games and figure out how to play them consistently. FYI, I will be reading and re-reading the cash sections of the followign books:

Harrington on Cash games volume 1 and 2

Supersystem 1 and Supersystem 2 by Doyle Brunson

Sklansky = Theory of Poker

Sklansky and Ed Miller - No Limit Holdem Theory and Practice

I will also be scouring the pokerXfactor forums and training videos for everything on cash games. I will be searching google and pokertube for training material and articles. I will be reading poker forums at 2+2 and pocketfives and anywhere else where I might get some knowledge.

Yes, I am on a quest.....it all sounds like bloody hard work!

January Summary

A good start to the year.  This is the first month I have passed my target of $100 profit per day. Obviously I would like this to continue. 

SUMMARY - Jan 2009

         FTilt  PStars   Live  Total   Profit

                                          0

01/01     20       2      0      22      22

01/02   -118    -  1      0    -119    - 97

01/03   - 90    - 40      0    -130    -227

01/04     23       0      0      23    -204

01/05   - 91       0      0    - 91    -295

01/06     80    - 23      0      57    -238

01/07   - 79      35      0    - 44    -282

01/08   - 93      32      0    - 61    -343

01/09   - 64    - 22      0    - 86    -429

01/10   - 13       0      0    - 13    -442

01/11   - 18       0      0    - 18    -460

01/12   2895    - 23      0    2872    2412      

01/13   -109    - 10      0    -119    2293      

01/14   - 25    - 10      0    - 35    2258      

01/15   - 74    - 15      0    - 89    2169      

01/16    155       0      0     155    2324      

01/17      0       0      0       0    2324      

01/18      0       0      0       0    2324      

01/19   - 31       0      0       0    2324      

01/20   - 95    - 29      0    -124    2200  

01/21   - 92    - 51      0    -143    2057      

01/22    795    - 17      0     778    2835      

01/23    547    - 62      0     485    3320      

01/24   -118    - 29      0    -147    3173      

01/25      0       0      0       0    3173      

01/26   - 54    - 44      0    - 98    3075      

01/27    216      23      0     239    3314

01/28    595    - 76      0     519    3833

01/29     46    -  7      0      39    3872      

01/30   -174       0      0    -174    3698      

01/31    148      15      0     163    3861   

Some things stand out when you look at the numbers. Why am I winning on Full Tilt this month and yet cannot win a thing on Pokerstars. I have stepped down limits to as far as $1 sitngos and still lose all the time. If I have aces, the other guy gets a flush. If I have kings or AK the other guy has aces.  I recorded a number of my tournament exits where I got all my chips in with the best hand but got unlucky....time after time.

I still cannot explain how or why the 2 sites are so different.  Maybe FullTilt is being kind to me this month and hitting my drawing hands more often that it should and that's why I am winning. Or maybe Pokerstars is being unkind to me.  I know last year I had a spell where the opposite was true and FullTilt would not win a thing for me. Maybe this is all psychological and I am causing my own problems.

So notwithstanding the puzzle above I am reasonably pleased with this months results and want to try to meet my target again in February. I am going to take a shot at a couple of larger tournaments - one good cash in one of these should improve my results but a few losses will make it very hard to meet my target.

Onwards......

Poker Tracking sites

I use OfficialPokerRankings.com extensively to record my tournament results and to track my progress on this poker journey. There are several similar sites out there but this one is allowed by Pokerstars and FullTilt and is very informative.

I use the site  in several ways:

1. It records all tournaments you enter and tracks your finishing position and money you win along with cost and ROI numbers.

2. It provides a leaderboard of the top players (highest winning players) on Pokerstars and FullTilt sites and allows you to see which tournaments they entered and where all their winnings come from.

3. It allows you to lookup in real time the players on a table that you are on to see their normal average buyin and current form. I think it provides an edge to know if a player on your final table has never won this big before or if they regularly win big. It helps you to decide which players are out of their depth and you can target with raises and re-raises.

4. It shows how you are progressing as a player by showing you ROI for each calander year in the last 3 years, the last 120 days and the current YTD.

For example I can see that:

- in 2007 my ROI was -88% - completely useless

- in 2008 my ROI was -11% - this reflects a poor first 6 months and a stronger last 6 months

- in 2009 my YTD ROI is 189% - this is reflecting a good January (so far)

- my ROI for the last 120 days is 60%

This information suggests I am on the right track. It also shows that for FullTilt at least (all stats above are site specific and are for Full Tilt) I am having a good month. I may even make my $100 per day profit target depending on how I do from now until the end of the month.

So officialpokerrankings.com, or OPR as I like to call it, well done. It is a great site and very useful to a poker player like myself who is trying to measure their progress.

Do good poker players need luck

I had an interesting chat today with a player called snoop86 about luck. Do good poker players need luck to win tournaments, and more to the point, as snoop contends are they good enough that they dont rely on luck.

I think all poker players need luck, Even aces are only 82% likely to win pre-flop so you need to be lucky to dodge that other 18% of cards that will beat you.

When you push in with KK on that final table, you need to be lucky for it to hold up and put you into a chip-leading position.

When you are playing aggressively around the bubble, you need some luck in that other players do not play back at you that one time you are making a move with marginal cards. and hopefully they will play back at you that one time you have a monster hand.

So I think luck is needed, and relied upon. But snoop disagreed with me!

Wrapping up 2008

I wrote my first blog entry in November 2007 and stated I have 3-4 months to train to become a poker player and get to the pinnacle whatever that means.  I really started my journey the month before in September. I finished up my computer job for a year of rest and decided I might as well fill in that time trying to play poker.

In September I carted around the casinos and poker rooms in Southern California and realized how much I hated commuting and sitting in traffic and how much I enjoyed working at home. I found online poker. In October I signed up for Full Tilt and in November I tried Pokerstars. I also found a bunch of poker magazines with articles on strategy, a number of poker learning books at the book store and online websites and forums that train you to become a better poker player. I decided after 3 months I was ready to try some big tournaments in different countries around the world.

So 2008 was about combining my enjoyment of travel with my new found passion of competitive poker. I travelled to Australia and played in a tournament in Adelaide in January coming 3rd, then I played in the Aussie Millions event #1 in Melbourne and came 33rd. It seemed to be a great start.

I went to Las Vegas in February and played in a bunch of regular casino tournaments. I then played in the LA Poker Classic at Commerce Casino in March and headed to England in April to play in the casinos over there. In May I went to Monte Carlo for the EPT grand final and played in one event and some live SitnGos.  I was back in Las Vegas for June and July and played in one event in the WSOP.   For all the experience I was gaining I did not yet feel good enough at poker to be out of training. 

So I decided August was a study month. I decided as I had started the journey in September it was more reasonable to allow for a 12 month training period. I would start to play for real in September 2008 tracking my results and setting some goals.

So I did. I set a goal of earning an average $100 per day clear profit from online poker. It started well in September but then went downhill. My results:

September - win $2212

October - win $58

November - lose  $477

December - win $114

I guess if I met the goal right away it would be too easy.  I struggled in October, November and December to stop the rot. I reviewed all my training material - what was I doing so right in September that went wrong in these three months. Or was I just lucky in September and playing the same way now without getting lucky. Or was there an online conspiracy that I was victim to .

So here I am in January. Trying to review the past year I have enjoyed the time playing poker and travelling the world. I am in a very lucky situation that I can afford to continue playing poker during 2009. I want to meet my goal and then pass it.  

The big question is am I good enough? Or can I become good enough? I guess the only way to find out is to play on during 2009 and continue to learn and adapt my game. 

December summary

It looked like December was going to be another disaster money-losing month taking my downswing into its third month, but I had a late month comeback of sorts which left me barely in profit:

SUMMARY - December 2008

         FTilt  PStars   Live  Total   Profit

                                          0

12/01   - 24    - 11      0    - 35    - 35

12/02    - did not play

12/03    - did not play

12/04    - did not play

12/05    - did not play

12/06    - did not play

12/07    - did not play

12/08    - did not play

12/09     33       0      0      33    -  2

12/10   - 22       0      0    - 22    - 24   

12/11      0       0      0       0    - 24 

12/12   - 18       0      0    - 18    - 42 

12/13      0      12      0      12    - 30 

12/14      0       0      0       0    - 30 

12/15   - 31       0      0    - 31    - 61 

12/16   -135       0      0    -135    -196 

12/17      9       0      0       9    -187 

12/18   -  7    - 11      0    - 18    -205 

12/19   -  9       0      0    -  9    -214 

12/20      0       0      0       0    -214 

12/21      0       0      0       0    -214

12/22   - 15    - 99      0    -114    -328

12/23      0      23      0      23    -305

12/24      5    - 32      0    - 27    -332

12/25      0    -  3      0       3    -335

12/26    319       1      0     320    - 15

12/27    115    - 28      0      87      72

12/28   - 93    - 18      0    -111    - 39

12/29    296      54      0     350     311

12/30   - 44    - 35      0    - 79     232

12/31   - 77    - 41      0    -118     114

So I ended the year not thinking I was totally useless but still very disappointed in my roller-coaster results. If I win one day I seem to lose the next. I am obviously not playing consistent poker or maybe this is just the variance all the pros talk about so much. 

 

Making a profit again

So since the day after Christmas I finally cracked my downswing and returned to winning ways with a modest profit.  Notable small victories:

12/26 - came 2nd in a 200 person $11 tourney ==> $330 

12/27 - came 5th in a 90 man $26 SnG ==>$144

12/29 - came 1st in a 90 man $11 SnG ==> $230

12/29 - came 1st in a 90 man $3 SnG ==> $72

I am hoping this will enable me to finish December in profit and get back to my $100 per day profit target in january.

Some of the things I have changed to get past the downswing:

- fold KQ in early position and play real cautious with it in ANY position (similar to how I play AJ)

- focus on bullying small and medium stacks around the bubble

- slow down on final table

- build chips early by positional play

I've also been more relaxed over the Christmas period and with all the travels, shopping and partying completed I have been able to slow down and focus a bit better.  This may or may not have helped my poker :-)

Pokerstars blogger freeroll

My great luck continues and I continue to smile. I was playing the blogger freeroll (the prizes are great so why not). This was a NL satellite with top 72 players qualifying out of 538 runners and I was going nicely having some banter with the table then hit the following 2 hands:

QQ v 87 - the flop was J87 and he checked, so I led out with my QQ and he called. Turn was a 7 and he checked.  I checked a little scared of the paired board and the river was a 5. He put in a small bet and did not have many chips left so I raised to put him all in. He called and showed the FH  and there went half my stack leaving me with 22oo chips or so.

AQ v 88 - I was SB and he was BB. Preflop I just called because I wanted action and he raised - things were looking good. The flop was 8AQ. Hows that for a setup. I bet and he raised, so I called and we played a bit of cat and mouse. I figured he had A-rag or maybe even A-8. I had a good banter going in the chat box and everything was looking rosy with all the chips going in the middle. His set won the day!!

I saved the history for this hand:

PokerStars Game #23034721655: Tournament #124189661, Freeroll  Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (25/50) - 2008/12/18 14:39:14 ET

Table '124189661 35' 9-max Seat #9 is the button

Seat 2: ace-redman (2076 in chips) 

Seat 3: Nis Puk (4326 in chips) 

Seat 4: DrewFours (3294 in chips) 

Seat 5: bigpoppaboat (2439 in chips) 

Seat 6: MrAckley (3650 in chips) is sitting out

Seat 7: ImRafa20 (2465 in chips) 

Seat 8: Priitk (1261 in chips) 

Seat 9: SiresNme (4574 in chips) 

ace-redman: posts small blind 25

Nis Puk: posts big blind 50

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to ace-redman [Ad Qs]

DrewFours: folds 

bigpoppaboat: folds 

MrAckley: folds 

ImRafa20: folds 

Priitk: folds 

SiresNme: folds 

ace-redman: calls 25

Nis Puk: raises 200 to 250

ace-redman: raises 200 to 450

Nis Puk: calls 200

*** FLOP *** [8h Qd Ac]

GRobman is connected 

ace-redman: bets 350

Nis Puk: raises 350 to 700

ace-redman: calls 350

*** TURN *** [8h Qd Ac] [2d]

ace-redman: checks 

Nis Puk: bets 450

ace-redman said, "gl all"

ace-redman: raises 476 to 926 and is all-in

Nis Puk: calls 476

*** RIVER *** [8h Qd Ac 2d] [Kh]

*** SHOW DOWN ***

ace-redman: shows [Ad Qs] (two pair, Aces and Queens)

Nis Puk: shows [8d 8c] (three of a kind, Eights)

Nis Puk collected 4152 from pot

Nis Puk said, "gg"

*** SUMMARY ***

Total pot 4152 | Rake 0 

Board [8h Qd Ac 2d Kh]

Seat 2: ace-redman (small blind) showed [Ad Qs] and lost with two pair, Aces and Queens

Seat 3: Nis Puk (big blind) showed [8d 8c] and won (4152) with three of a kind, Eights

Seat 4: DrewFours folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 5: bigpoppaboat folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 6: MrAckley folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 7: ImRafa20 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 8: Priitk folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Seat 9: SiresNme (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

On a positive note I had another session yesterday where I lost 4 tournaments (I cannot win a tournament right now), but won all the buy-ins back and a little more in a cash game. So maybe I should just play cash games right now!!!!

That would be smart, but I am not smart. I am persistant - this tournament luck has to change at some  point!!

Pokerstars bloggers event

I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker!

This PokerStars tournament is a No Limit Texas Hold’em event exclusive to Bloggers.

Registration code: 178421

The conspiracy theory - online poker

I am in the middle of a downswing which I am hoping will end soon but it leads to inevitable questions from my friends and family about the possibility of online poker being rigged. I am very optimistic that this is NOT the case but it did lead me to think about the possibilities and how it would work:

1. DBA/Programmer cheats

Of course I am very familiar with computers and running databases because this is what I have done for the last 14 years. The recent Ultimate Bet/Absolute Poker scandals prove it is easy for programmers to hide code or hooks into the system that someone could abuse (for example to see hole cards of the other players on the same table),  but with competent code reviews and ongoing software upgrades by other programmers these hooks would always eventually be found out and exposed.  A more likely cheat is the DBA who has access to every game, every hand history and every player record stored in the database. They could use this information to improve their own game or share it with other players and interested parties - this would be much harder to detect but is not so different from the current occurrence of players using training sites to see the full hand histories of other winning or expert  players.  Even though the DBA can access this information it may not provide immediate benefit.

2. Pokerpro type tables.

The new electronic tables also could store all hands played so it could be possible for someone (a DBA) to run through the full hand history of the person who won a tournament playing on these machines to determine when they bluff, how much they bet for certain starting hands etc, to either improve their own game or to fully understand how another player plays - the main difference between this and the training sites is the player may not even be involved in this information being shared.  For example Mike McDonald (aka TIMEX) won the Pokerpro tournament in the 2008 Aussie millions event - who owns the hand history stored in the PokerPro machine?

3. Player collusion

We all know this exists expecially in mid-stakes cash games and single table SitNGos. The most likely scenario is 2 players who are friends  sharing information over instant messaging software regarding their hands while they play on the same table.  This would be very hard to detect if it is done sporadically but fairly easy to detect if it is done regularly. I suspect the online poker sites are working hard to identify IP addresses that regularly play on the same tables together and tracking any money transfers/chat logs etc. between players with those IP addresses.  The other form of player collusion is in large MTT tournaments where player 1 may play the easy part of the tournament and hand over to the more experienced player2 for the end game, OR one player will play the same MTT with several accounts aka multi-accounting. Something similar to this appears to have happened in a large Pokerstars tournament recently but Pokerstars had a system in place to detect this and disqualified the eventual winner. I think the  "player collusion" form of cheating will always happen to some extent but the online sites are working to stamp this out.

4. The online sites player retention scam

This is where things could get interesting. I do not think the big sites would dare to do this but because I am a programmer I know it could be done. The worst form of cheating would be an algorithym to encourage players to win a little and then lose a little, win a little more, then lose a little more eventually losing their bankroll so they have to reload. This would maximize the amount of play each player would make and therefore increase the online sites rake. How would you disguise this - basically it would just look like a run of bad luck where players appear to have a number of bad beats. Who would you target - probably the mid-range players who are the bread and butter of the site. The higher end players and the  pros know the percentages and would quickly discuss skewed statistics amongst themselves and to avoid certain sites. But the mid-range players would just keep depositing a little more money and assume their lack of skill and "bad luck" caused them to have a bad run - after all they were winning the month before!! 

Number 4 is the type of conspiracy which can only be prevented by competent regulation by an authority that can punish any offenders. It is possible self-regulation (which exists now via the importance of reputation) would also prevent the online sites from doing this. But as much as I am very optimistic this is not happening, it is impossible to know for sure.  And I am in the middle of a downswing....and several people have said to me "it must be rigged".....

Food for thought!!

Still trying to figure it all out

My downswing is ongoing. the last 3 months have gone as follows:

September - win $2212

October - win $58

November - lose  $477

Early in December I decided to take a week or so off from playing online  poker hoping this would refresh me and get me back to winning ways. Unfortunately it has made little difference as evidenced by my December month to date results:

SUMMARY - December 2008

         FTilt  PStars   Live  Total   Profit

                                          0

12/01   - 24    - 11      0    - 35    - 35

12/02 no poker played

12/03 no poker played

12/04 no poker played

12/05 no poker played

12/06 no poker played

12/07 no poker played

12/08 no poker played

12/09     33       0      0      33    -  2

12/10   - 22       0      0    - 22    - 24

12/11      0       0      0       0    - 24

12/12   - 18       0      0    - 18    - 42

12/13      0      12      0      12    - 30

12/14      0       0      0       0    - 30

12/15   - 31       0      0    - 31    - 61

Not too good. After my break I started playing again and had ONE day of positive results at Full Tilt, then continued losing money. The strange thing is I have been playing cash games on Full Tilt and winning.  For example I played on 4 tables low-stakes NL on 12/15 and ended up $71 in profit for about 2 hours work. But in the tournaments and SitNGos I continue to lose money.

Possibly the simplest reason is the lack of a winning mentality (or going on tilt). Maybe my continuing playing tournaments where I go deep and then losing around the bubble is causing me to make bad decisions. Or maybe my recent reading up on cash game play has somehow affected how I am playing tournaments.

I am hoping to figure this out and get back to positive ways. 

November summary

As mentioned in my last post, November started ok and then went downhill. The full results are shown below:

SUMMARY - November 2008

                                                            

         FTilt  PStars   Live  Total   Profit

                                          0

11/01     67    - 19      0      48      48

11/02      0       0      0       0      48

11/03    100    -  2      0      98     146

11/04   -158    - 12      0    -170    - 24 

11/05    229       0   - 60     169     145

11/06   -245       0      0    -245    -100

11/07   - 35    -  3      0    - 38    -138

11/08   - 23       0      0    - 23    -161

11/09   - 85       0      0    - 85    -246

11/10   - 33       0      0    - 33    -279

11/11      0       0      0       0    -279

11/12     16       0      0      16    -263

11/13    140       0      0     140    -123

11/14    138      15      0     153      30

11/15   - 77       0      0    - 77    - 47

11/16   -107    - 12      0    -119    -166

11/17   - 10    - 28      0    - 38    -204

11/18      0       0      0       0    -204

11/19   - 42       0      0    - 42    -246

11/20      0       0      0       0    -246

11/21   - 26       0      0    - 26    -272

11/22   - 68      29      0    - 39    -311

11/23     58    -  0      0      58    -253

11/24   - 95    - 57      0    -152    -405

11/25   - 22       0      0    - 22    -427

11/26   - 38       0      0    - 38    -461

11/27      0       0      0       0    -461

11/28      0       0      0       0    -461

11/29      1    -  0      0       1    -460

11/30      0    - 17      0    - 17    -477

The final loss for the month was $477. When will this downswing end? The obvious question is what am I doing about it. I am reviewing my hand histories, writing down how I am playing certain hands, moving to different buyins and different types of games, re-reading certain books and re-watching certain training site videos that seemed to help me before. 

So far I have not cracked the nut. I am going deep quite often and then losing near to or on the bubble. For example, some of my recent beats:

AQ v A8 (he hit the 8)

set v pair (he back-doored a straight)

AK v AA

AQ v AA

KK v JJ (he hit the J)

QQ v 33 (he hit the 3)

Jh9h v As7s (me short stacked on the bubble, money goes in post flop on flop of 2d, Js, 7c - he calls with pair of 7s and gets a backdoor flush 5s, Ks)

I decided to take some days off from playing poker - maybe a break will get me back to winning ways in December.